America vs. Europe on economic scale

On an interview on Bloomberg radio last week, a European finance commentator made an interesting observation about why US companies often outdo European companies when it comes to gaining global scale in industries (economic scale = serving a larger market so that costs per unit are reduced). He noted that in the US there is a massive single market naturally, because it is a huge country with one economic system, one currency, one language, one mail system, etc. So it is natural for many US companies to seek large scale, because they are already part of a huge market right there waiting for them. Because they are accustomed to seeking massive scale, US companies then have an advantage in transitioning to global markets, where the scale gets only more massive. By contrast, European companies often serve a smaller scale, which does not always lend itself to shifting to global scale as easily. But the commentator was clear he thought it could be done. Another factor is that many European countries have extensive longstanding ties to other regions of the world left over from the colonial era, like French and British ties to Africa and Asia, Spain's ties to Latin America, and Dutch ties to South Africa. Having said that, many European companies already have global scale. One example is Carrefour, the French supermarket found in 30 countries. Among many other examples are BMW, Aldi, Saab, Electrolux, Bosch, Siemens.

Neat rankings of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems worldwide

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems are often touted as a more economical solution than rail systems. But not all BRT systems worldwide really fit the principles established by planners. To establish a common global definition of BRT systems, the Institute for Transportation Development and Policy published a “BRT Standard” in 2012. Made up of transport experts from around the world, the organization now rates BRT systems based on how well they meet the BRT Standard’s scorecard: gold, silver, bronze, basic BRT, and non-BRT. Of seven cities receiving a gold rating in 2014, six were in Latin America, with the top score going to Bogotá, Colombia.

Only seven cities received the gold rating:
Bogotá, Colombia
Guangzhou, China
Curitiba, Brazil
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Guadalajara, Mexico
Lima, Peru
Medellín, Colombia

The only US city to receive silver was Cleveland.

BRT Standard Scores
https://www.itdp.org/brt-standard-scores/

Things I saw last summer in Midwest and West, USA

Last summer I spent three months rolling around Montana (a month) a other states like Idaho, North Dakota, Wyoming, and at the end Oregon and Washington. A few things I saw:

-Hail storm in June in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. Ice balls just started flying out of the sky, pelting my car like rocks.

-Coal trains across Montana, coal headed to China.

-Livingston, Montana on Fourth of July. Good place to be. Huge craft fair, where I talked for an hour to Tracey Roberts of Rattlesnake Creek Alpacas. She grew up raising cattle, riding horses, trapping beavers, and shooting deer and elk. Now, she has kids and decided to take up raising alpacas. She takes the wool and sews hats, gloves, scarves, and other products herself. Says often she hangs out in the barn with the alpacas to chill, sewing.

-Butte, Montana: officially one of America's most busted cities. Once the richest city in Montana, now destitute as mining has disappeared.

-Snake River. My vote for America's baddest river. It's so wide in parts it looks like a lake, water is pure teal, and it keeps resurfacing along the highway from Wyoming through Idaho through Oregon and Washington.

-Rugged, able-bodied people. It's amazing how people's body structures are different in a place like Bozeman, MT. So many people look in shape--not anything crazy or fake or glamourous, just people who can do stuff, hikers, climbers, bikers, etc. Here in DC, you often see a 40 year old man jogging who looks like a deer trying to stand for the first time, like he just bought his body and has not figured out how to use it yet.

-Independent people. So many examples of this.

-Fargo, North Dakota and Boise, Idaho: two cool midsize towns where you can get a huge 3 BR house for the same price as a small condo in DC. Boise stood out to me for really solid, down to earth people. I liked the vibe. Fargo seemed like a good place for an entrepreneur looking to expand, cheap rent and a neat downtown, funky vibe. Major biochemical industries up I Fargo. Both towns are works in progress, but the development is visible. Spokane, Washington is another midsize town, very green but downtown looks like it needs more of a facelift.

-Wal-Mart in Bozeman, MT has a massive rifle and fishing section and sells fishing licenses by the dozens. I still have never fired a gun in my life and I don't think I've ever caught a real decent-sized fish.

-Boise BAM JAM 3 on 3 basketball tournament. Just stumbled into this tournament walking down the street in downtown Boise, about ten blocks were blocked off for it. To my surprise, a lot of the teams were good, both kids up through adults. Apparently it is the largest streetball tournament in the Northwest.

-The Basque Block in Boise. Took a tour of the block with a lady who was Basque herself and grew up there. This block was home to boarding houses where Basque men from Spain came over on a government-sponsored program. The deal: they had to go tend sheep on the plains for three years--often totally alone--and in return they got citizenship. This lady's dad was one of those guys. In winter, they came in from the plains and stayed in Basque boarding houses, her family ran one and when she was a kid she would sing Basque songs to the guys living there. They had a jai alai court in one.

-Ice age glacial lakes across North Dakota. Usually people--including me--think of Wisconsin and Minnesota as the "Land o' Lakes," with thousands of lakes created by glacial processes like erosion and kettle lakes (giant pieces of ice that broke off and formed a pot-like hole) during the Ice Age. I didn't realize that the lakes also extend across North Dakota, all along the highway. So you see mile after mile of green and crops but also one small lake after the next, cool.

-Mount Rushmore. It stood out to me just how good it is, how well done the sculpture is given it is just a huge piece of rock. Saw some mountain goats nearby on one mountain road where you can view the profile of George Washington from different angle than the park. Also went to the Crazy Horse monument but you can't actually go up close because they are still building it.

-Glacier National Park - the drive is definitely great, huge views. Unfortunately, only 10% of the original glaciers remain, and being summer their area was low. But did see two bears and a trio of bighorn sheep i.e. rams with the curly horns up close. They walked right across the road in front of people to try to get to a parking lot, apparently they like to lick antifreeze from the asphalt (and somehow it doesn't kill them), but the park rangers were stationed there to keep them out.

-Foreign kids working in the US CIEE program. This program hires foreign students to work over the summer, including in a lot of state and national parks. I talked to kids from Russia, Taiwan, China who were waiters and cashiers in the national parks. One Russian girl was from Krasnoyarsk, she was surprised I knew (generally) where that was (Kuznets basin coal area). She was more surprised after I went out to the car and brought back my Geography textbook which has a photo of mining winter in Krasnoyarsk.

-Huge herds of buffalo. Saw in Yellowstone and also in Custer State Park in South Dakota. Cars were lined up on the road amid around fifty buffalo. Some buffalo were licking the headlights on my Toyota Camry, I had recently polished them to pass inspection and the chemicals were still on there.

-Painted Hills of Eastern Oregon and the Palouse region of Washington. Welcome to another planet, these hills are so other-worldly. Like driving across the moon with grass and crops on it, especially canola. The hills are a maze, like a driving test. Fast and Furious should do some scenes here among the canola and wheat. I blew $100 in gas just driving through these hills.

-Pullman, Washington - now hear this: the Lentil Capital of America. Holds the annual National Lentil Fair.

-Walla Walla, Washington - dual-identity: downtown is full of shi-shi wine bars and restaurants, because Walla Walla is the heart of Washington's wine country. Six blocks out from downtown: trailer homes.

-Few ethnic minorities. About 90% of Wyoming, Montana, and Idaho are white. By contrast, Northern Virginia is 55% white with immigrants from all over the world.

-Gambling in dumb places. In Montana, gambling is legal and found in all kinds of places. There are gas stations with video gambling. Many regular hotels have a casino where people can throw their lives away. Overall, it looks very tawdry and emphasizes just how cheesy gambling is and why it should be very limited.

-Great Plains. They are great. They are huge. It is truly incredible that we have this much flat space. Also incredible that it is devoted largely to grains, like wheat, soy, corn i.e. monocultures. Very frequently, I would look out and think. "what if these ten square miles of wheat were covered in 200 different crops instead of just one."

-Lewis and Clark Historic Trail Interpretive Center, Great Falls, Montana. Learned a lot there. Those guys did an amazing trek dragging boats across range after range of mountains. Incredible luck to meet Sacajawea who recognized her Shoshone brother with them and took over navigation using her memory of the mountains. They had furs there from all kinds of animals that were hunted/trapped, neat to feel them. It said the ate about seven pounds of meat/fish per day.

-A lot of poverty and also a lot of rich folks. Montana is a prime example. On magazines there, it is common to see many pages of real estate ads for $16 million ranch estates where you basically own a lake or a view of a mountain. Many wealthy people buy a home there--and often don't even live in it except for a season or a few weeks out of the year. Meanwhile, Montana lacks jobs and there are many poor and homeless. Overall the population of Montana is only one million, but ten million tourist come in each year especially for Yellowstone and Glacier national parks, two of the most popular in the US national park system.

-Gonzaga University, Spokane, WA. I went to Gonzaga High School in DC for three years and also Georgetown U. which are both Jesuit, so seeing Gonzaga University another Jesuit school and a big basketball school was an obvious attraction. Nice modern campus, but neighborhood is just a bunch of suburban-style houses it is not really downtown per se.

-Kansas City and suburb Overland Park. Was not impressed. Unbelievably hot in summer, felt like being in Chad (never been to Chad though). Overland Park is rated as a top place to live in Kansas City, but only because it is a wealthier area with a Whole Foods etc., not so much a real city but just a vast chunk of sprawl. There is a huge medical research park there which provides jobs. Downtown KC is full of gentrification, flipped buildings, overall just looked cheesy to me. Omaha similar on a smaller scale.

-Space. So much of it. The US is a huge country. Very few countries have the luxury of having the amount of space that we do.

Great overview of types of geothermal energy

Great overview of types of geothermal energy

Geothermal technologies explained for the rest of us - Jay Egg
http://www.greenbuildermedia.com/buildingscience/geothermal-technologies-explained-for-the-rest-of-us-heat-pump-geoday2015-hvac-solar-wind

Making some sense of the Syria mess

In last night's presidential debate, it was clear that neither candidate has a clear sense of how to move forward in Syria. Geography is essential to understand Syria, but as Plato noted, democracy has no requirements for its leaders except that they proclaim themselves to be the "friend of the people." There is definitely no Geography test required to become president.

There's a saying, "War teaches geography," Geography is indispensable to engaging in warfare and diplomacy.

The Washington Post and so many other outlets have published clear maps of Syria and Iraq and the spatial ranges of the different groups there. Just looking at and listening to these maps is a first step toward bringing wars to an end in Syria, they speak volumes.

More than ten actors in Syria
Here's a short list more than ten major actors fighting in Syria, and these are just the ones I know about:

Five major groups of actors:
Assad coalition (Assad regime, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah)
US-led coalition, notably the Kurds
Al-Quaeda (multiple subgroups like Al-Nusra)
ISIS
Syrian opposition groups ex. Ahrar al-Sham

State actors
Assad regime - Shia, doing more killing of innocent people than ISIS in order to stay in power, under the pretense of attacking ISIS
Russia - Assad ally, providing military and financial support, bombing innocent people
Iran - Shia headquarters, Assad ally, providing major money and troops

Turkey - US ally yet ancient enemies with Kurds, taking in incredible number of refugees
US-led coalition (includes UK, Netherlands, France, etc.) - air war and also doing all kinds of special ops and support that don't all make headlines
Jordan - US ally, taking in incredible number of refugees
Saudi Arabia - military support including bomber planes
UAE - military support including bomber planes

Non-state actors-Kurds - US allies yet ancient enemies of Turkey
-ISIS
-Al-Quaeda/Al Nusra
-Hezbollah - Shia terrorist organization from Lebanon, Shia allies with Iran and Assad regime
-Syrian opposition groups ex. Ahrar al-Sham

So Assad and his troops are supported by Russia and two Shia groups Iran and Hezbollah.
US is supposedly allied Sunni groups ex. Jordan, the Kurds, and (sometimes) Turkey.

Key points:
1. The Kurds are the major "good guys" on the ground, fighting both ISIS and Assad for the free world--and yet are a stateless nation, 30 million people without their own country. The injustice is self-evident.

2. Assad & Russia are not really bombing ISIS, they are bombing Syrian rebels opposed to Assad. Russia essentially lied and told the US they were helping to defeat ISIS.

3. All three major "bad guys" in Syria are in it to the death, yet none will be left standing.1) The Assad regime, 2) ISIS, and 3) Al Quaeda/Al Nusra will not retreat or disappear of their own accord. There's nowhere to go. So they have to be taken out, all the way. There is no reconciliation with any of them. This is why the original Obama strategy to "help the moderates" in Syria didn't work: as many observers have stated, there are no moderates in Syria.

4. US blew its coalition with Sunnis with the Iran nuclear deal. From the perspective of the Sunni coalition of the Saudis, Jordan, etc., the #1 threat is not ISIS but Iran and the Shias. When the US gave Iran $150 billion, the Sunnis looked at this as simply adding fuel to Iran's longstanding funding for Shia terrorism against them. No doubt a large chunk of the US gift of $$$ went to support Shia rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Syria, both of which we are fighting.

5. Syria is Russia's only ally in the Middle East and is Russia's only outlet to the Mediterranean Sea. Syria is mostly desert but it has a slice of Mediterranean coast above Lebanon.

Things that should have been done years ago and still need to be done:

1. Ground Assad's air force and create a no fly zone to stop the bombing. Relatively easy, probably could be done in a week or less but we just haven't done it. Does not require boots on the ground. We have stood by while Assad has bombed the life out of his own country and forced millions of refugees to Turkey, Jordan, Europe, etc.

2. Take out Assad and his whole regime. Should already be done. He is a small-time despot. The "caution" bandied about is that Assad is fighting ISIS and all heck will break out if he is removed, but all heck has already broken out, and without an air force the bombings have to end.

3. Destroy ISIS's oil fields. Easy. We knew for years where ISIS' oil fields were--their chief source of income--and yet years went by before we started destroying them. All that time ISIS was raking in millions of dollars that went toward killing innocent people, right under our noses.

4. Destroy ISIS communications centers. Easy. We knew for years where ISIS' communications centers were, the studios where they produce their propaganda websites, videos, and magazines, which are the main thing drawing new recruits to Syria from around the world. Yet we did not take them out.

5. Create safe zones in Aleppo and elsewhere in Syria by finally putting the "coalition" of Middle Eastern allies to use. Create places for Syrians who are trapped to flee to in their own country. This is something that the "coalition" partners in the Middle East could be manning and patrolling. But they can't. Why? Because Obama has not grounded the Assad planes, so any coalition would be risking getting bombed.

How did we get here?
Obama has followed a personal ideology of non-interventionism, rather than realism. The idea, which in theory is great, is to form a coalition of local powers so that the countries in a particular neighborhood of the world like the Middle East play the major roles in taking care of their own problems, rather than have the US jump in and dominate the region with military might, which continues a cycle of the US stretching its capabilities. This idea was engrained by Obama's long formative years in Hawaii and Indonesia, two places where local cultures were dominated by outside colonial powers the British and Dutch in Indonesia and the US in Hawaii. One of his first actions as US president was to send the bust of Winston Churchill in the White House back to London.

The problem is that ideas don't win wars. The wars in Syria and Iraq already existed in full force as Obama was just beginning to talk about forming a coalition within the Middle East to defeat ISIS.

Also, Obama engaged in his own Bay of Pigs in trying to arm a "Free Syrian Army," and it was a disaster of epic proportions, nearly every one of them defected or was killed. Moreover, all that time, the US sat back and watched while innocent people were bombed

Mirror imaging
I had a professor in a grad school class Intelligence in World Politics who talked about "mirror imaging," one of the biggest mistakes in intelligence. It refers to the false premise that other actors share the same objectives and logic as you. Syria is a perfect example: the US assumed that Sunni actors like the Saudis, Jordanians, and UAE would be eager to form a coalition to exterminate ISIS. However, it turns out they were more focused on Iran their Shia rivals.

Essentially, Obama delayed heavy intervention in Syria for years on the false expectation of bringing together centuries-old Middle Eastern rivals like the Arabs, Turks, and Kurds on the fly during a devastating war, as if they would suddenly hold hands and unite to defeat ISIS and Assad. While the US idly watched the Free Syrian Army get slaughtered and the coalition break away on its own, millions of Syrians have been bombed and had to flee their country--and we could have taken out Syria's bomber planes long ago. Syria is a folly of epic proportions.

US balancing act with Turkey and Kurds
The US has been allies with Turkey and the Kurds. However, Turkey and the Kurds have long been enemies, as the Kurds in southeastern Turkey have been fighting the Turkish government for years, trying to get their own country (which they deserve). The Turks also committed human rights abuses against the Kurds there in the past. The US has tried to avoid "arming the Kurds" too much, in order to avoid losing support from Turkey. But the truth is, the Kurds are now fighting ISIS and Assad for the world, there is no way around it. There are even independent rogue fighters from the US and Scotland, etc. flying over to fight with the Kurds and take out ISIS. When all is said and done, the only lasting recipe for peace would be involve the Kurds getting their own country carved out of Iraq and Syria.

Bottom line
At the end of the day, Syria as a country is toast, it will not exist after the fighting is done. The same could likely be true of Iraq. The only question is which groups will get which pieces.

Nice 6-minute overview of geothermal earth processes in Iceland

Nice 6-minute overview of geothermal earth processes in Iceland

Geothermal in Iceland
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_9dNx13f4U
Still not sure what channel/company this came from

Southern Brazil breakaway? Plebisul vote to secede

The 30 million people who live the south of Brazil are in manys ways like a separate country. Except for Portuguese language, the three southern states of Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul are more similar to Uruguay and Argentina than to the rest of Brazil. They are mostly European including Italian, Eastern European, German and many other groups. The states lie in the pampas grasslands and share the famous pampas traditions of Uruguay and Argentina, including gauchos (similar to cowboys), ranching, and drinking mate. The south is also the Brazil's only extra-tropical region, beyond the Tropic of Capricorn, and gets chilly in winter.

These three southern states just held a vote on whether to secede from Brazil, called "Plebisul" (plebiscite + sul i.e. south). Plebusul is their attempt to escape from the corruption that plagues Brazil as a whole. Southern Brazil is not perfect, but its citizens feel tired of paying their taxes to fund corruption at the national scale, which has been in the world spotlight with the impeachment of President Dilma Roussef and the "Operation Car Wash" scandal. Two thirds of Brazil's national Congress is under some type of investigation.

I spent a week in the capital of Paraná state, Curitiba, in summer 2015. It was in a hostel in Curitiba that a young computer programmer from Sao Paulo on vacation said: "In your country, people go into politics to change things, to represent people. In Brazil, people go into politics to steal. They go into politics to make money, to get rich." I thought he was exaggerating at the time, but the more I read about the corruption scandals that followed and the depth of corruption in Brazil's Congress, the more he turned out to be dead-on accurate.

Curitiba is known as a global model of environmental planning and innovation. It has the highest standard of living in Brazil and is the "greenest" city in the world in terms of green space per capita. It is an extremely orderly place compared to the chaos of, say, Rio de Janeiro.

I personally could easily see southern Brazil as a separate country--and a powerful one.

Populations:
Brazil: 204 million
Argentina: 43 million
Plebisul states (three states of southern Brazil): 29 million
peru: 31 million
Venezuela: 30 million
Uruguay: 3 million

Half a million Brazilians want to break away and form a new country--Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/10/05/half-a-million-brazilians-want-to-break-away-and-form-a-new-country/