In last night's presidential debate, it was clear that neither candidate has a clear sense of how to move forward in Syria. Geography is essential to understand Syria, but as Plato noted, democracy has no requirements for its leaders except that they proclaim themselves to be the "friend of the people." There is definitely no Geography test required to become president.
There's a saying, "War teaches geography," Geography is indispensable to engaging in warfare and diplomacy.
The Washington Post and so many other outlets have published clear maps of Syria and Iraq and the spatial ranges of the different groups there. Just looking at and listening to these maps is a first step toward bringing wars to an end in Syria, they speak volumes.
More than ten actors in Syria
Here's a short list more than ten major actors fighting in Syria, and these are just the ones I know about:
Five major groups of actors:
Assad coalition (Assad regime, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah)
US-led coalition, notably the Kurds
Al-Quaeda (multiple subgroups like Al-Nusra)
ISIS
Syrian opposition groups ex. Ahrar al-Sham
State actors
Assad regime - Shia, doing more killing of innocent people than ISIS in order to stay in power, under the pretense of attacking ISIS
Russia - Assad ally, providing military and financial support, bombing innocent people
Iran - Shia headquarters, Assad ally, providing major money and troops
Turkey - US ally yet ancient enemies with Kurds, taking in incredible number of refugees
US-led coalition (includes UK, Netherlands, France, etc.) - air war and also doing all kinds of special ops and support that don't all make headlines
Jordan - US ally, taking in incredible number of refugees
Saudi Arabia - military support including bomber planes
UAE - military support including bomber planes
Non-state actors-Kurds - US allies yet ancient enemies of Turkey
-ISIS
-Al-Quaeda/Al Nusra
-Hezbollah - Shia terrorist organization from Lebanon, Shia allies with Iran and Assad regime
-Syrian opposition groups ex. Ahrar al-Sham
So Assad and his troops are supported by Russia and two Shia groups Iran and Hezbollah.
US is supposedly allied Sunni groups ex. Jordan, the Kurds, and (sometimes) Turkey.
Key points:
1. The Kurds are the major "good guys" on the ground, fighting both ISIS and Assad for the free world--and yet are a stateless nation, 30 million people without their own country. The injustice is self-evident.
2. Assad & Russia are not really bombing ISIS, they are bombing Syrian rebels opposed to Assad. Russia essentially lied and told the US they were helping to defeat ISIS.
3. All three major "bad guys" in Syria are in it to the death, yet none will be left standing.1) The Assad regime, 2) ISIS, and 3) Al Quaeda/Al Nusra will not retreat or disappear of their own accord. There's nowhere to go. So they have to be taken out, all the way. There is no reconciliation with any of them. This is why the original Obama strategy to "help the moderates" in Syria didn't work: as many observers have stated, there are no moderates in Syria.
4. US blew its coalition with Sunnis with the Iran nuclear deal. From the perspective of the Sunni coalition of the Saudis, Jordan, etc., the #1 threat is not ISIS but Iran and the Shias. When the US gave Iran $150 billion, the Sunnis looked at this as simply adding fuel to Iran's longstanding funding for Shia terrorism against them. No doubt a large chunk of the US gift of $$$ went to support Shia rebels in Yemen and Hezbollah in Syria, both of which we are fighting.
5. Syria is Russia's only ally in the Middle East and is Russia's only outlet to the Mediterranean Sea. Syria is mostly desert but it has a slice of Mediterranean coast above Lebanon.
Things that should have been done years ago and still need to be done:
1. Ground Assad's air force and create a no fly zone to stop the bombing. Relatively easy, probably could be done in a week or less but we just haven't done it. Does not require boots on the ground. We have stood by while Assad has bombed the life out of his own country and forced millions of refugees to Turkey, Jordan, Europe, etc.
2. Take out Assad and his whole regime. Should already be done. He is a small-time despot. The "caution" bandied about is that Assad is fighting ISIS and all heck will break out if he is removed, but all heck has already broken out, and without an air force the bombings have to end.
3. Destroy ISIS's oil fields. Easy. We knew for years where ISIS' oil fields were--their chief source of income--and yet years went by before we started destroying them. All that time ISIS was raking in millions of dollars that went toward killing innocent people, right under our noses.
4. Destroy ISIS communications centers. Easy. We knew for years where ISIS' communications centers were, the studios where they produce their propaganda websites, videos, and magazines, which are the main thing drawing new recruits to Syria from around the world. Yet we did not take them out.
5. Create safe zones in Aleppo and elsewhere in Syria by finally putting the "coalition" of Middle Eastern allies to use. Create places for Syrians who are trapped to flee to in their own country. This is something that the "coalition" partners in the Middle East could be manning and patrolling. But they can't. Why? Because Obama has not grounded the Assad planes, so any coalition would be risking getting bombed.
How did we get here?
Obama has followed a personal ideology of non-interventionism, rather than realism. The idea, which in theory is great, is to form a coalition of local powers so that the countries in a particular neighborhood of the world like the Middle East play the major roles in taking care of their own problems, rather than have the US jump in and dominate the region with military might, which continues a cycle of the US stretching its capabilities. This idea was engrained by Obama's long formative years in Hawaii and Indonesia, two places where local cultures were dominated by outside colonial powers the British and Dutch in Indonesia and the US in Hawaii. One of his first actions as US president was to send the bust of Winston Churchill in the White House back to London.
The problem is that ideas don't win wars. The wars in Syria and Iraq already existed in full force as Obama was just beginning to talk about forming a coalition within the Middle East to defeat ISIS.
Also, Obama engaged in his own Bay of Pigs in trying to arm a "Free Syrian Army," and it was a disaster of epic proportions, nearly every one of them defected or was killed. Moreover, all that time, the US sat back and watched while innocent people were bombed
Mirror imaging
I had a professor in a grad school class Intelligence in World Politics who talked about "mirror imaging," one of the biggest mistakes in intelligence. It refers to the false premise that other actors share the same objectives and logic as you. Syria is a perfect example: the US assumed that Sunni actors like the Saudis, Jordanians, and UAE would be eager to form a coalition to exterminate ISIS. However, it turns out they were more focused on Iran their Shia rivals.
Essentially, Obama delayed heavy intervention in Syria for years on the false expectation of bringing together centuries-old Middle Eastern rivals like the Arabs, Turks, and Kurds on the fly during a devastating war, as if they would suddenly hold hands and unite to defeat ISIS and Assad. While the US idly watched the Free Syrian Army get slaughtered and the coalition break away on its own, millions of Syrians have been bombed and had to flee their country--and we could have taken out Syria's bomber planes long ago. Syria is a folly of epic proportions.
US balancing act with Turkey and Kurds
The US has been allies with Turkey and the Kurds. However, Turkey and the Kurds have long been enemies, as the Kurds in southeastern Turkey have been fighting the Turkish government for years, trying to get their own country (which they deserve). The Turks also committed human rights abuses against the Kurds there in the past. The US has tried to avoid "arming the Kurds" too much, in order to avoid losing support from Turkey. But the truth is, the Kurds are now fighting ISIS and Assad for the world, there is no way around it. There are even independent rogue fighters from the US and Scotland, etc. flying over to fight with the Kurds and take out ISIS. When all is said and done, the only lasting recipe for peace would be involve the Kurds getting their own country carved out of Iraq and Syria.
Bottom line
At the end of the day, Syria as a country is toast, it will not exist after the fighting is done. The same could likely be true of Iraq. The only question is which groups will get which pieces.
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